The unresolved US tariff policy curbs upside room, with SHFE tin prices showing weak upward momentum [SMM tin midday review]

SHFE Tin Midday Commentary on July 9, 2025

As of the midday session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2508 was quoted at 264,880 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.24% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 264,000-265,800 yuan/mt. Market trading was sluggish, and open interest decreased to 26,200 lots, reflecting a rise in risk-averse sentiment among funds.

The LME tin main contract was quoted at $33,280/mt, up slightly by 0.05% from yesterday's closing price, but failed to break through the key resistance level of $33,500. The unresolved US tariff policy has constrained upside room. US tariff risks: July 9 is the deadline for the US to suspend tariffs on trading partners. If additional tariffs are imposed on tin products from China, it will suppress export demand expectations.

Domestic policy support: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting "anti-cut-throat competition" in the PV industry, guiding the exit of backward capacity, which is beneficial for tin's application in the new energy sector in the medium and long-term, but provides limited sentiment boost in the short term.

Short-term in the doldrums: The support level for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is 260,000 yuan/mt, and the resistance level is 268,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the $33,000-33,500 range. With supply disruptions and macro uncertainties intertwined, prices are struggling to break out of the rangebound pattern.